Bid pipeline · Q2 2026
Every bid, anchored to your last twelve months of jobs. Win probability and estimate validation run continuously.
Win rate · T12M
51%
Up from 38% in prior 12 months · 17 wins · 33 submits
Estimate accuracy
±4%
Bid vs actual cost · vs ±18% baseline · re-anchored monthly
Bid turnaround
2.4d
vs 9-day baseline · drafted by agent · estimator approves
Active pipeline
$4.2M
12 bids · weighted by win probability
Demo note. Click any bid to drill into the historical anchors, cost decomposition, and drafted bid document. Sanderson Pad 17 is the hero — $420K target, 76% win probability anchored to four prior Sanderson pad bids.
Back to pipeline
Sanderson Pad 17
Sanderson Energy · Tier 1 · 78% historical win rateRecommended bid
$478K
vs target $495K · margin ~15% · balances win/margin
Win probability
76%
Anchored to 4 prior Sanderson pad bids
Days to decision
15 d
Submission target: Apr 28 · review window Apr 28 – May 3
Historical anchors 4
Cost decomposition
Risks & flags 3
Bid document
Four prior Sanderson pad bids · anchor cohort
PB-2388
Sanderson Pad 11 · full pad · 71 days · 2025
$268K
18.1%
Won
PB-2401
Sanderson Pad 12 · full pad · 69 days · 2025
$298K
17.4%
Won
PB-2455
Sanderson Pad 13 · full pad · 73 days · 2025
$334K
15.2%
Won
PB-2521
Sanderson Pad 14 · full pad · 68 days · 2026
$412K
6.1%
Won · margin off
Win probability · 76%
Based on 4 anchor bids · cohort win rate 100% · scope match 94%
Customer relationship92
Scope match · prior pads94
Rate card alignment68
Competitive pressure54
Timing & mob window82
Anchor watch. Pad 14 won but margin dropped to 6.1% (vs 17–18% for Pads 11–13). The model weights this — rate card needs a reset before Pad 17 ships, or we're pricing low on purpose. Pricing decision surfaces at estimator-approval time.
Cost database · 847 line items
Every line item from every job, indexed. Median · range · last-used · source job.
| Line item | Last used | Range · median | MSA ceiling | Trend | Used in |
|---|
The estimator's spreadsheet problem, solved. Every historical rate from every job in one index. The agent uses this when drafting bids; the estimator uses it when overriding.
Win & loss analytics · T12M
Where we win, where we lose, and by how much. The no-bid decision is as valuable as the bid decision.
Win rate
51%
17 of 33 · +13pp YoY
Avg margin · won bids
17.2%
Target 18% · 95% confidence band
Avg bid size · won
$312K
Range $68K – $510K
Lost · rework value
$1.9M
16 lost bids · debrief cycle on 11
Win rate · by customer
Sanderson Energy
78%
Phillips 66
62%
Apex Midstream
51%
Cascade Construction
44%
Maverick
28%
Win rate · by scope type
Pad work
68%
Pipeline lateral
52%
Tank retrofit
41%
New construction
38%
Logistics mob
73%
Loss reasons · last 16 lost bids
Lost on price
7
Lost on schedule · TAT
5
No-bid (lost deliberately)
2
Unknown · no debrief
2
Seasonality · quarterly win rate
Q1
58%
Q2
51%
Q3
47%
Q4
49%
The no-bid decision is as valuable as the bid decision. New-construction wins 38% · tank retrofit 41%. If the estimator's time is the bottleneck, bidding those costs Meridian wins elsewhere. The agent doesn't make the call — it shows the math.
Estimate validator
Paste any draft estimate — we flag lines that deviate from historical baselines. Good for junior-estimator review and bid QA.
Paste estimate · line items
Validation · vs last-12-months baselines
Superintendent · $55.00/hr
median $55
ceiling $62.50
−12% under ceiling
Operators (blended) · $48.00/hr
median $48
range 46–50
in range
Laborers · $32.00/hr
median $32
range 30–34
in range
Excavator 170 · $185.00/hr
median $180
MSA pending
MSA gap
Pickup w/ Tools · $42.00/hr
median $48
ceiling $48
−13% under MSA
Skid Steer · $38.00/hr
median $41
ceiling $41.50
−9% under MSA
Welder's Truck · $55.00/hr
passthrough
MSA flat
passthrough
Aggregate · $28.00/ton
median $28
range 26–31
in range
Geotextile · $8.40/sf
median $8.40
range 8.1–8.8
in range
Sub · $52,000
median $48K
range 44–58K
+8% above median
Two flags surfaced. Pickup w/ Tools 13% under MSA ceiling — money on the table. Excavator 170 MSA mapping still pending. Both are the kind of thing the estimator catches on a good day and misses on a bad one. Agent catches them every time.